New Zealand vs Canada T20I: Lockie Ferguson Set to Miss Chepauk Clash

When Lockie Ferguson isn’t playing, New Zealand don’t just lose a quick bowler – they lose their maximum pace. In a contest where what bowlers face is worked out for each ball, this is important.

The T20I between New Zealand and Canada is at MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai, at 11:00 AM on February 17th, 2026, and the time isn’t good for teams which are slow to get going. Chepauk makes captains choose their bowlers as in chess, and not as if for a best-of highlights show.

Ferguson will be missing this match, and the point is simple: New Zealand have to win without the one player who can make 145 kph a mental problem for batsmen. Canada, however, get a rare chance to see a top team with a clear fault.

Can New Zealand remain hard without Ferguson’s extra speed?

In Depth

New Zealand’s plan in India has been about having choices: left and right-handed batsmen, spin to control the middle of the innings, and a fast-bowling group which can change speed without losing its shape. Ferguson not being there makes that plan smaller. What he does is unique: hard-length balls which rush pulls, quick bouncers which change where the eye looks, and final overs where batsmen can’t simply wait for slower deliveries.

Chepauk adds a twist. This pitch often rewards bowlers who can take pace off the ball, bowl wide, and keep the ball away from where batsmen want to hit. That would seem to lessen the loss of Ferguson. It does, a little. But the T20 World Cup doesn’t give marks for style. It gives marks for winning matches, and Ferguson is one of New Zealand’s best at finishing games when the ball is wet and the field is moved back.

What Ferguson Not Being There Means

Ferguson isn’t just about speed. He’s a role. When Mitchell Santner sets a field and asks you to hit to the longer side, Ferguson is the one who can bowl hard into the pitch and make that long boundary seem even longer.

Without him, New Zealand’s fast bowlers are more about control than making the batsman afraid. Matt Henry can swing the ball at the start and hit the seam. Kyle Jamieson gives steep bounce and awkward angles. Jacob Duffy offers good, straight new-ball bowling. James Neesham can bowl an over or two in the middle and still deal with pressure if the match gets exciting.

That’s a good group. It isn’t the same group. None of them do the “no movement, all speed” ball which makes a batsman have to decide early. In T20s, deciding early is the first step to being out.

The other thing is field settings. Ferguson’s pace allows more attacking fields because mistakes happen quicker. When a bowler is five miles per hour slower, batsmen get a little more time to adjust. Captains feel this, and fields go deeper. The match quietly becomes safer for the side chasing.

The New Zealand Bowling Plan At Chepauk

Chepauk is often a place where captains want overs 7 to 15 to look dull on the scoreboard. That’s Santner’s area, and the way New Zealand’s team is put together shows this: Santner as captain, Ish Sodhi as the attacking leg spinner, plus spin choices around them through Rachin Ravindra and Mark Chapman.

Expect New Zealand to build the innings like this:

Ferguson missing means the final overs will be more to a plan. That can be good on a slow pitch. It gets hard if the pitch is better than expected and batsmen can hit straight.

Canada’s Start And Main Jobs

Canada’s best chance in a match like this is to stay in the game long enough to make New Zealand worry. If you lose three in the powerplay, the match is over. If you get to over 10 overs with wickets left, you can make New Zealand show their best match-ups early.

Canada’s team has a feel which Indian people will know: a lot of names which sound like the local game, a lot of players brought up in the cricket culture of the subcontinent, and a style which depends on placing the ball before hitting with power. That can work at Chepauk, where 170 isn’t certain and where taking a risk often gets punished by the pitch, and not just the fielders.

Look at the main jobs:

Canada don’t need to be stronger than New Zealand. They need to do better than them for 40 overs of small moments.

The Pitch At Chepauk And The Toss

Chepauk is known for offering grip and spin, and that’s certainly been the case in this competition; the ball can hold on the surface. Players who depend on timing could easily mis-hit the ball into the large gaps in the field. Bowlers who spin the ball usually do well with a basic strategy: bowl at the stumps, vary the speed, and guard the straight boundary.

This affects what captains think about the toss. Batting first is attractive, as you can set a score with a good idea of what’s needed, and then make the target seem to get smaller. Dew is not likely to help the team batting second in an 11:00 AM day match. This allows captains to keep their spinners involved all the way through.

New Zealand would ideally bat first, make between 160 and 175, and then have Santner and Sodhi make Canada attempt to hit balls that aren’t worth hitting, to close out the game. Canada would prefer to bowl first, hold New Zealand to a reasonable total, then chase the runs steadily through the middle overs.

Santner Against Canada’s Left-Handers

Mitchell Santner’s worth in Twenty20 is how little he lets opponents get. He changes his pace in a subtle way, disguises the angle, and makes batsmen hit to the parts of the field that appear to be soft.

Canada’s left-handed players – Kirton in particular – are going to be key. If Canada can avoid getting bogged down against Santner, they can make New Zealand bowl pace bowlers earlier than they would like. This is where Ferguson’s absence is important once more. New Zealand can still win, but it’s more difficult to do so without a bowler who can cause panic.

Canada should keep it simple: take quick singles early, get the easy runs, and then pick a particular over to attack – preferably when a part-time bowler is on, or when Sodhi is trying to find some turn. Hitting too many big shots against Santner is the quickest way to get out cheaply.

New Zealand’s Batting Plan At Chepauk

New Zealand’s top order has a range of options. Finn Allen can win a game in twelve deliveries. Devon Conway can control the speed of the innings and find angles to hit. Tim Seifert can switch-hit and make the fielders move. Glenn Phillips is the unpredictable element, and Daryl Mitchell is still very good at judging the length of a delivery quickly.

At Chepauk, the batting plan isn’t about hitting the ball as hard as possible, and more about hitting it in the right way. You can’t only play straight shots and expect to get 175. You can’t swing at every ball and expect the pitch to be forgiving. The best innings at this ground usually have a solid powerplay, a busy middle period, and the last five overs where the batsmen still have the ability to use their wrists and have energy.

Canada’s bowling – a combination of medium pace and spin – will try to slow the scoring down. Canada’s worry is letting New Zealand’s batsmen get settled. A settled batsman at Chepauk starts to use the crease, begins to sweep from outside off stump, and suddenly the same pitch that looked difficult becomes easy to play on.

New Zealand will probably try to attack Canada’s fifth bowler. If Canada protect that bowler with another spinner, New Zealand can respond with different combinations of bowlers, and left and right-handed batsmen.

Overs 13 To 17

This match will probably be decided in a phase that doesn’t often seem dramatic. Overs 13 to 17 will show whether the final overs are going to be easy to play, or a desperate attempt to get runs.

If New Zealand are batting, they’ll want a situation where Phillips or Neesham can start quickly, and still have wickets left. Without that, they could end up with 150 when 165 was possible.

If Canada are batting, they’ll want to get to this phase with seven or eight wickets remaining. That will allow a controlled attack. Lose wickets here, and New Zealand can set a defensive field, bowl spin, and make the chase a slow grind.

Ferguson’s usual job is to make this phase much better with a strong over, then return late to finish the job. Without him, New Zealand may share those overs between Henry, Jamieson, and Neesham. That’s acceptable. It’s simply more foreseeable.

Fantasy And Who Will Win

For anyone following this game, the main change is in what to expect from the pitches. With Ferguson out, New Zealand won’t have as many fast, ‘impact’ overs, which makes spinners and all-rounders better options at Chepauk. Santner’s four overs are now even more important, and Sodhi’s chance of taking wickets goes up if Canada are pushed to hit at the spin.

If you look at how the betting changes and game notes in a single place, a fast look at Diamond Exchange will show how the market responds to the team news, without you having to change how you think about the cricket.

Looking at cricket alone, New Zealand still have more ways to win: a batting order that goes deeper, better spin bowling, and more experience in the crucial final overs. Canada’s way to win is smaller, but it is there: keep New Zealand to a score they can chase, then bat carefully and save the big shots for the very end.

What Teams Will Do

Trying to name the teams days before isn’t as good as working out styles that fit Chepauk.

New Zealand will probably

• Keep the ball in play for a long time.
• Use spin early if the pitch shows grip from the first ball.
• Aim for a good, rather than an outstanding, total.

Canada will probably

• Bowl straight at the stumps and make New Zealand try to hit down the ground.
• Put fielders on the leg-side boundary for Allen and Phillips.
• Bat with low-risk turns of the wrist, then pick one bowler to go for.

The side that plays its style for longer is usually the winner at Chepauk. Hasty shots and hasty overs are punished quickly.

The Main Point: A Test Of Resources

Ferguson being out reminds us that tournaments don’t care about your best side. They care about what you can do next. New Zealand have built a team that can change, and Santner’s leadership is right for pitches like Chennai’s. This gives them an advantage.

Canada, however, don’t need New Zealand to fall apart. They need New Zealand to be a bit below their best for a bit longer than usual. One poor over. One catch dropped. One wrong length. That’s what the smaller nations look for.

At 11:00 in Chennai, with the ball gripping and the crowd wanting a good game, this New Zealand against Canada T20I is less about the names on the teamsheet and more about who plays the pitch best for 40 overs.

Important Points

• Lockie Ferguson missing means New Zealand’s plan for the end of the innings moves from fast bowling to changes in the pattern of the bowling, and puts more on Henry and Jamieson to bowl at the death.
• Chepauk favours control and spin, which suits Santner and Sodhi, and makes the game about “winning the middle overs”.
• Canada’s best chance is to survive first: take wickets into overs 13-17, then have one go at a bowler they’ve chosen.
• New Zealand’s batting needs a balanced speed: a strong powerplay, a busy middle order, and an end to the innings that doesn’t depend on unlikely hitting.